Rochester, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

191
FXUS61 KBUF 150209
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
909 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passing to our south will weaken with showers
across Western New York tapering off late. Cloud cover
associated with this system will thin out from the northeast
during the day Friday. A slow moving area of high pressure will
then bring fair and dry weather for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weakening area of low pressure across western Lake Erie will
continue to move slowly into Ohio valley overnight. Light rain
showers associated with this system across Western NY this
evening will erode as they move east and encounter dry air.
Most of the rain showers should be over by late tonight. Lows
will mainly be in the mid 30s to lower 40s across Western NY but
it will be much cooler across the Eastern Lake Ontario region
where there will be some radiational cooling underneath thin
high cloud cover.

Mid level and surface ridging builds in fairly aggressively on
Friday behind tonights low. Would not completely out of some
light showers across far western New York, but otherwise mainly
dry conditions with thinning cloud cover from northeast to
southwest, with the western Southern Tier holding on to the
cloud cover the longest. Temperatures on Friday will climb into
the upper 40s to lower 50s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An eroding ribbon of moisture across WNY and passing weak vorticity
maxima embedded within a cool (850H temps ~0C) northwest flow will
bring extra clouds and potentially a few additional rain showers to
the area Friday night. This should be spatially limited to areas
southeast of Lake Erie, particularly the higher terrain of the
western Southern Tier. Surface temps should dip back into the 30s
from WNY to the Finger Lakes overnight, with a range of 20s across
the North Country where skies will be clearer and winds a bit calmer.

A strong ridge of high pressure at all levels building across the
Great Lakes will then ensure dry weather Saturday morning through at
least Sunday. As the ridge moves east of the region and shrinks
southward later Sunday, the next trough will be sliding east-
southeast across Ontario and will likely reach Quebec by late Sunday
night. A light to modest southerly flow between the two systems will
give temperatures a boost Sunday and Sunday night, with a few of the
typical warm spots like Dansville and Dunkirk possibly reaching the
60 degree mark Sunday afternoon...Though most locations will settle
into the 50s. The approaching trough will send a cold front through
the eastern Great Lakes Sunday night and likely bring another round
of rain showers to the region, particularly later in the night and
east of the lakes where some lake enhancement will come into play.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid-level trough sweeps through Monday bringing a re-enforcing
shot of somewhat colder air to the region. While limited...we may
even see a few showers south of Lake Ontario and especially across
the North Country and St. Lawrence Valley where deeper moisture will
be found. After Monday...ridging aloft builds into the eastern Great
Lakes which will largely bring dry weather through Tuesday and
possibly longer.

Low confidence forecast beyond Wednesday through the end the week.
Right now...the overall evolution of the large trough (closed low)
to our west and its impact on the Lower Lakes is less than certain.
For that reason...have leaned on NBM guidance and lowered PoPs late
in the week. We may see dry weather extend through this entire
period.

Otherwise...temperatures during the period will continue to remain
5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weakening storm system will drift across the Ohio Valley
tonight. This will bring some light rain showers to far western
NY which should not impact vsby much. However, the system will
also bring lower cigs, likely in the MFVR category at KBUF and
KIAG and IFR across higher terrain including KJHW.

As the low weakens and moves away the cigs will lift some during
the day Friday. Stratus will last longest across the Southern
Tier as skies start to clear out from northeast to southwest.

Outlook...

Friday night...Mainly VFR.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR.
Monday...Restrictions possible with a chance of rain showers
east of the lakes.
Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
The area of low pressure will pass south of the lower Great
Lakes tonight, subsequently weakening the pressure gradient over
the region and allowing winds and associated waves to subside.

Winds will veer around to north-northwest Friday at under 15 knots
with some choppy conditions possible on the central and eastern
basin of Lake Ontario.

High pressure will approach Friday night and Saturday with moderate
west to northwest winds developing. Light to gentle winds with
negligible waves can then be expected Sunday as the area of high
pressure passes through and east of the region.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Apffel/TMA
MARINE...Apffel/TMA